The Ledger

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Tag Archives: Forecasting

CFO Magazine: Supply Chain Turmoil: Applying the Lessons

“Improved planning and forecasting, if an organization undertakes the effort, will come in handy as lead times return to normal levels and suppliers return to realistic production schedules. It will also help if consumer and business-to-business demand wither due to persistent price inflation.”

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CFO Dive: Small Businesses See Inflation as No. 1 Challenge

“Rising prices for months have disrupted CFO budgeting, risk management, forecasting and pricing, and show no signs of easing.”

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FP&A Trends: My Top Five Predictive Planning Lessons

“Ask people what predictive analytics is about – they might mention a crystal ball or sci-fi novels. In practice predictive analytics has nothing to do with black magic or rocket science. It is a proven and robust technology, based on math, that can bring concrete benefits to finance organisations, when rightly used.”

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CFO Dive: 4 CFO Scenarios – and Fixes – for Inflation

““Part of taking the scenario-based view is making sure that leaders — CFOs and other leaders — are prepared no matter what future comes to pass,” according to Andrew Blau, a managing director at Deloitte. “We stress the importance of being prepared for all the scenarios.””

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FP&A Trends: Financial Planning in the Age of Uncertainty

“Uncertainty can take many forms. It can manifest in a natural disaster, the merger or acquisition of a competitor, geopolitical changes, or a global pandemic. In fact, the current Covid-19 crisis has challenged the forecasting models used, especially when it comes to predicting the evolution of a company’s business in a highly uncertain environment.”

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CFO Journal: How to Act in the Face of Uncertainty

“Until recently, business leaders could assume that the immediate future would bear enough resemblance to the recent past that they could construct sturdy forecasts out of the data, assumptions, and real-world experience they’d been accumulating. Relying on continuity from past events, however, has always been a specious practice, especially in fast-moving industries, and can be existentially dangerous today.”

Read More at The Wall Street Journal >

CFO Magazine: 2022 Outlook: CFOs’ 4 Realms of Risk

“Corralling all the data required to get better at planning and forecasting and timely decision-making will not be a piece of cake. A Harvard Business Review Analytic Services study found that many finance teams struggle with accurately preparing, reconciling, and accessing high volumes of information; integrating recent or real-time data into analyses; and analyzing data, forming recommendations, and communicating them.”

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FP&A Trends: Caution: Forecast Accuracy is Seasonal Too!

“The benefits of measuring seasonality of accuracy are that users can plan high/low scenarios for each prediction based on the season-specific range of possibilities.  Departments can adjust how much capacity, safety stock, or cash reserves are needed based on their own worst case.  And it’s easier to determine missing factors for model improvement when you focus on adding predictors to the high noise areas of the model.”

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FP&A Trends: Best Practices in Implementing the Rolling Forecast

“The main criticism of the traditional budget is that it does not react to what is actually happening in the business during the year. But a Rolling Forecast solves that problem, helping companies to continuously plan (forecast) over a set time horizon.”

Read More at FP&A Trends >